Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
